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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 38.98%. A win for Sparta Rotterdam had a probability of 38.94% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (5.07%) and 1-3 (4.76%). The likeliest Sparta Rotterdam win was 2-1 (8.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.02%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Sparta Rotterdam | Draw | Ajax |
38.94% ( 0.81) | 22.08% ( -0.04) | 38.98% ( -0.76) |
| Both teams to score 69.07% ( 0.21) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 68.96% ( 0.27) | 31.04% ( -0.26) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 47.56% ( 0.31) | 52.44% ( -0.31) |
| Sparta Rotterdam Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.1% ( 0.46) | 16.9% ( -0.45) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.06% ( 0.81) | 46.94% ( -0.8) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.12% ( -0.2) | 16.88% ( 0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.09% ( -0.36) | 46.91% ( 0.36) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sparta Rotterdam | Draw | Ajax |
| 2-1 @ 8.02% ( 0.07) 1-0 @ 5.07% ( 0)3-1 @ 4.75% ( 0.11)2-0 @ 4.51% ( 0.07)3-2 @ 4.23% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 2.67% ( 0.08)4-1 @ 2.11% ( 0.08)4-2 @ 1.88% ( 0.06)4-0 @ 1.19% ( 0.05)4-3 @ 1.12% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.38% Total : 38.94% | 1-1 @ 9.02% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 7.14% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 2.85% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 2.51% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.57% Total : 22.08% | 1-2 @ 8.03% ( -0.11) 0-1 @ 5.07% ( -0.11)1-3 @ 4.76% ( -0.09)0-2 @ 4.51% ( -0.13)2-3 @ 4.23% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 2.68% ( -0.09)1-4 @ 2.12% ( -0.06)2-4 @ 1.88% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 1.19% ( -0.05)3-4 @ 1.12% ( 0)Other @ 3.39% Total : 38.98% |
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