SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Feyenoord win with a probability of 66.58%. A draw had a probability of 17.5% and a win for Ajax had a probability of 15.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Feyenoord win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.97%) and 3-1 (7.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.41%), while for an Ajax win it was 1-2 (4.33%). The actual scoreline of 6-0 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Feyenoord would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Feyenoord | Draw | Ajax |
66.58% ( -0.31) | 17.5% ( 0.24) | 15.92% ( 0.07) |
| Both teams to score 63.29% ( -0.82) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 71.07% ( -1.07) | 28.93% ( 1.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 50.11% ( -1.33) | 49.89% ( 1.33) |
| Feyenoord Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.87% ( -0.34) | 8.13% ( 0.34) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 71.47% ( -0.87) | 28.53% ( 0.87) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.89% ( -0.63) | 31.11% ( 0.64) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.56% ( -0.75) | 67.44% ( 0.75) |
| Score Analysis |
| Feyenoord | Draw | Ajax |
| 2-1 @ 9.3% ( 0.11) 2-0 @ 7.97% ( 0.23)3-1 @ 7.78% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 6.66% ( 0.08)1-0 @ 6.35% ( 0.29)4-1 @ 4.88% ( -0.11)3-2 @ 4.54% ( -0.1)4-0 @ 4.18% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 2.85% ( -0.11)5-1 @ 2.45% ( -0.1)5-0 @ 2.1% ( -0.05)5-2 @ 1.43% ( -0.08)4-3 @ 1.11% ( -0.07)6-1 @ 1.03% ( -0.06)Other @ 3.96% Total : 66.58% | 1-1 @ 7.41% ( 0.21) 2-2 @ 5.43% ( -0.03)0-0 @ 2.53% ( 0.16)3-3 @ 1.77% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.37% Total : 17.5% | 1-2 @ 4.33% ( 0.05) 0-1 @ 2.95% ( 0.13)2-3 @ 2.11% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 1.72% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 1.68% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.12% Total : 15.92% |
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