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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 40.01%. A win for PEC Zwolle had a probability of 38.02% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (5.03%) and 1-3 (4.91%). The likeliest PEC Zwolle win was 2-1 (7.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-3 win for Ajax in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Ajax.
| Result | ||
| PEC Zwolle | Draw | Ajax |
38.02% ( 0.23) | 21.97% ( 0.15) | 40.01% ( -0.38) |
| Both teams to score 69.5% ( -0.59) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 69.51% ( -0.77) | 30.49% ( 0.77) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 48.22% ( -0.92) | 51.78% ( 0.92) |
| PEC Zwolle Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.96% ( -0.24) | 17.04% ( 0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.8% ( -0.42) | 47.2% ( 0.42) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.77% ( -0.47) | 16.23% ( 0.47) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.27% ( -0.86) | 45.73% ( 0.87) |
| Score Analysis |
| PEC Zwolle | Draw | Ajax |
| 2-1 @ 7.87% ( 0.09) 1-0 @ 4.89% ( 0.17)3-1 @ 4.64% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 4.33% ( 0.12)3-2 @ 4.22% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 2.55% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 2.05% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.87% ( -0.04)4-3 @ 1.13% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 1.13% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.32% Total : 38.02% | 1-1 @ 8.9% ( 0.17) 2-2 @ 7.16% ( -0.03)0-0 @ 2.77% ( 0.12)3-3 @ 2.56% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.59% Total : 21.97% | 1-2 @ 8.09% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 5.03% ( 0.14)1-3 @ 4.91% ( -0.06)0-2 @ 4.57% ( 0.05)2-3 @ 4.34% ( -0.09)0-3 @ 2.77% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 2.23% ( -0.07)2-4 @ 1.97% ( -0.07)0-4 @ 1.26% ( -0.03)3-4 @ 1.16% ( -0.05)Other @ 3.68% Total : 40.01% |
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