SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 46.04%. A win for FC Twente had a probability of 31.4% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.59%) and 2-0 (6.06%). The likeliest FC Twente win was 1-2 (7.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.81%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Ajax in this match.
| Result | ||
| Ajax | Draw | FC Twente |
46.04% ( -0.03) | 22.56% ( 0.03) | 31.4% ( 0) |
| Both teams to score 65.16% ( -0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.66% ( -0.13) | 35.34% ( 0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.63% ( -0.14) | 57.37% ( 0.14) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.12% ( -0.06) | 15.88% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.9% ( -0.11) | 45.1% ( 0.11) |
| FC Twente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.46% ( -0.06) | 22.54% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.88% ( -0.09) | 56.12% ( 0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ajax | Draw | FC Twente |
| 2-1 @ 9.03% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 6.59% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 6.06% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 5.54% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 4.13% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 3.72% ( 0)4-1 @ 2.55% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.9% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.71% ( -0)4-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 0.94% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.94% Total : 46.04% | 1-1 @ 9.81% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 6.73% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 3.58% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 2.05% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.39% Total : 22.56% | 1-2 @ 7.31% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 5.33% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 3.97% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 3.63% ( -0)2-3 @ 3.34% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.97% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.35% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.24% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.25% Total : 31.4% |
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