SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Feyenoord win with a probability of 71.27%. A draw had a probability of 16.9% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 11.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Feyenoord win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.51%) and 1-0 (8.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.84%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 1-2 (3.48%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Feyenoord would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Feyenoord | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
71.27% ( -0.97) | 16.85% ( 0.43) | 11.88% ( 0.54) |
| Both teams to score 53.66% ( 0.21) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.34% ( -0.63) | 35.66% ( 0.62) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.28% ( -0.7) | 57.72% ( 0.69) |
| Feyenoord Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.16% ( -0.37) | 8.84% ( 0.37) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 69.72% ( -0.91) | 30.28% ( 0.91) |
| SBV Excelsior Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.86% ( 0.47) | 41.14% ( -0.48) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.32% ( 0.42) | 77.68% ( -0.42) |
| Score Analysis |
| Feyenoord | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
| 2-0 @ 10.7% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 9.51% ( 0.09)1-0 @ 8.82% ( 0.12)3-0 @ 8.65% ( -0.18)3-1 @ 7.69% ( -0.06)4-0 @ 5.25% ( -0.21)4-1 @ 4.66% ( -0.12)3-2 @ 3.41% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 2.55% ( -0.15)5-1 @ 2.26% ( -0.1)4-2 @ 2.07% ( -0.03)6-0 @ 1.03% ( -0.08)5-2 @ 1% ( -0.03)6-1 @ 0.91% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.76% Total : 71.27% | 1-1 @ 7.84% ( 0.21) 2-2 @ 4.22% ( 0.09)0-0 @ 3.64% ( 0.11)3-3 @ 1.01% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.15% Total : 16.85% | 1-2 @ 3.48% ( 0.14) 0-1 @ 3.23% ( 0.14)0-2 @ 1.44% ( 0.08)2-3 @ 1.25% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 1.03% ( 0.05)Other @ 1.45% Total : 11.88% |
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