SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 61.52%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 18.18%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.32%) and 0-1 (8.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.36%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 2-1 (4.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| SBV Excelsior | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
18.18% ( 0.4) | 20.3% ( 0.13) | 61.52% ( -0.52) |
| Both teams to score 57.55% ( 0.34) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.57% ( 0.08) | 38.43% ( -0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.28% ( 0.08) | 60.72% ( -0.08) |
| SBV Excelsior Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.43% ( 0.48) | 34.56% ( -0.48) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.72% ( 0.51) | 71.28% ( -0.5) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.95% ( -0.12) | 12.04% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 62.46% ( -0.26) | 37.53% ( 0.26) |
| Score Analysis |
| SBV Excelsior | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 2-1 @ 4.97% ( 0.09) 1-0 @ 4.42% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 2.35% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 1.86% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 1.76% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.81% Total : 18.18% | 1-1 @ 9.36% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 5.26% ( 0.07)0-0 @ 4.16% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.32% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.2% Total : 20.3% | 1-2 @ 9.91% ( -0) 0-2 @ 9.32% ( -0.12)0-1 @ 8.81% ( -0.07)1-3 @ 6.99% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 6.58% ( -0.12)2-3 @ 3.71% ( 0.03)1-4 @ 3.7% ( -0.04)0-4 @ 3.48% ( -0.08)2-4 @ 1.97% ( 0.01)1-5 @ 1.57% ( -0.02)0-5 @ 1.47% ( -0.04)Other @ 4.01% Total : 61.52% |
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