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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 85.07%. A draw had a probability of 9.5% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 5.39%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 3-0 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.47%) and 4-0 (8.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.11%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 1-2 (1.7%). The actual scoreline of 7-1 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ajax | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
85.07% ( 0.2) | 9.53% ( -0.02) | 5.39% ( -0.18) |
| Both teams to score 54.28% ( -1.43) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 79.25% ( -0.86) | 20.74% ( 0.85) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 60.85% ( -1.22) | 39.14% ( 1.21) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 96.65% ( -0.12) | 3.35% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 85.27% ( -0.39) | 14.72% ( 0.38) |
| SBV Excelsior Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.16% ( -1.42) | 43.84% ( 1.41) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.01% ( -1.19) | 79.99% ( 1.18) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ajax | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
| 3-0 @ 9.59% ( 0.35) 2-0 @ 8.47% ( 0.39)4-0 @ 8.14% ( 0.22)3-1 @ 7.91% ( -0.02)2-1 @ 6.98% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 6.71% ( -0.08)5-0 @ 5.53% ( 0.09)1-0 @ 4.99% ( 0.27)5-1 @ 4.56% ( -0.1)3-2 @ 3.26% ( -0.14)6-0 @ 3.13% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 2.77% ( -0.15)6-1 @ 2.58% ( -0.08)5-2 @ 1.88% ( -0.12)7-0 @ 1.52% ( -0)7-1 @ 1.25% ( -0.05)6-2 @ 1.07% ( -0.08)Other @ 4.74% Total : 85.07% | 1-1 @ 4.11% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 2.88% ( -0.09)0-0 @ 1.47% ( 0.1)Other @ 1.07% Total : 9.53% | 1-2 @ 1.7% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 1.21% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.49% Total : 5.39% |
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