SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortuna Sittard win with a probability of 41.84%. A win for Heracles had a probability of 33.75% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortuna Sittard win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.19%) and 2-0 (6.42%). The likeliest Heracles win was 1-2 (7.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.33%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fortuna Sittard would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Fortuna Sittard | Draw | Heracles |
41.84% ( 0.07) | 24.41% ( 0) | 33.75% ( -0.07) |
| Both teams to score 59.32% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.6% ( -0.04) | 43.4% ( 0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.2% ( -0.04) | 65.8% ( 0.04) |
| Fortuna Sittard Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.14% ( 0.02) | 20.86% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.44% ( 0.03) | 53.56% ( -0.02) |
| Heracles Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.96% ( -0.06) | 25.04% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.29% ( -0.09) | 59.71% ( 0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Fortuna Sittard | Draw | Heracles |
| 2-1 @ 8.88% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.19% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 6.42% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 4.64% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 3.35% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.21% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.82% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.31% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.26% Other @ 2.75% Total : 41.84% | 1-1 @ 11.33% 2-2 @ 6.15% ( -0)0-0 @ 5.22% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.48% ( -0)Other @ 0.22% Total : 24.41% | 1-2 @ 7.85% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 7.23% ( -0)0-2 @ 5.01% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 3.62% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.84% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 2.31% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.25% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 0.98% ( -0)Other @ 2.65% Total : 33.75% |
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