SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 53.25%. A win for Heracles had a probability of 24.6% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.04%) and 0-2 (7.75%). The likeliest Heracles win was 2-1 (6.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.04%). The actual scoreline of 0-6 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Heracles | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
24.6% ( 0.13) | 22.14% ( 0.04) | 53.25% ( -0.16) |
| Both teams to score 60.95% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.54% ( -0.03) | 38.46% ( 0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.25% ( -0.04) | 60.75% ( 0.04) |
| Heracles Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.31% ( 0.08) | 28.69% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.49% ( 0.1) | 64.51% ( -0.1) |
| PSV Eindhoven Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.47% ( -0.06) | 14.53% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.44% ( -0.13) | 42.56% ( 0.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| Heracles | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
| 2-1 @ 6.27% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 5.2% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 3.25% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 2.61% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.52% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 1.35% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.4% Total : 24.6% | 1-1 @ 10.04% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.05% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 4.17% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.62% ( 0)Other @ 0.27% Total : 22.14% | 1-2 @ 9.68% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 8.04% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 7.75% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 6.23% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 4.99% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 3.89% ( -0)1-4 @ 3% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 2.41% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1.88% ( -0.01)1-5 @ 1.16% ( -0.01)0-5 @ 0.93% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.31% Total : 53.25% |
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