SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heracles win with a probability of 47.75%. A win for PEC Zwolle had a probability of 29.6% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heracles win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.11%) and 2-0 (6.55%). The likeliest PEC Zwolle win was 1-2 (7.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.03%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Heracles in this match.
| Result | ||
| Heracles | Draw | PEC Zwolle |
47.75% ( 0.59) | 22.66% ( -0.06) | 29.6% ( -0.52) |
| Both teams to score 63.67% ( -0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.16% ( -0.02) | 36.84% ( 0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.99% ( -0.02) | 59.02% ( 0.03) |
| Heracles Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.17% ( 0.21) | 15.83% ( -0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.99% ( 0.38) | 45.01% ( -0.37) |
| PEC Zwolle Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.64% ( -0.33) | 24.36% ( 0.34) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.24% ( -0.47) | 58.76% ( 0.48) |
| Score Analysis |
| Heracles | Draw | PEC Zwolle |
| 2-1 @ 9.25% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 7.11% ( 0.06)2-0 @ 6.55% ( 0.1)3-1 @ 5.68% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 4.03% ( 0.09)3-2 @ 4.01% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2.62% ( 0.05)4-0 @ 1.86% ( 0.05)4-2 @ 1.85% ( 0.02)5-1 @ 0.97% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.82% Total : 47.75% | 1-1 @ 10.03% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 6.53% ( -0.03)0-0 @ 3.86% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.89% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.34% Total : 22.65% | 1-2 @ 7.09% ( -0.08) 0-1 @ 5.45% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 3.85% ( -0.07)1-3 @ 3.34% ( -0.07)2-3 @ 3.08% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 1.81% ( -0.05)1-4 @ 1.18% ( -0.04)2-4 @ 1.09% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.73% Total : 29.6% |
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