While Heracles have been far from impressive this season, they have been a tough team to beat when playing at home, with their only two defeats at Asito Stadion this term coming against Ajax and PSV.
Fortuna Sittard have failed to win any of their last six away games, losing three and drawing three, and we feel they will have to settle for a share of the spoils in the one.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortuna Sittard win with a probability of 42.3%. A win for Heracles had a probability of 33.26% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortuna Sittard win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.31%) and 0-2 (6.53%). The likeliest Heracles win was 2-1 (7.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.37%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
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