SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 62.02%. A draw had a probability of 19% and a win for Heracles had a probability of 18.98%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.65%) and 1-3 (7.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.08%), while for a Heracles win it was 2-1 (5%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Heracles | Draw | Ajax |
18.98% ( -0.03) | 18.99% ( -0.07) | 62.02% ( 0.11) |
| Both teams to score 64.15% ( 0.21) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 69.36% ( 0.3) | 30.64% ( -0.3) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 48.04% ( 0.35) | 51.96% ( -0.36) |
| Heracles Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.97% ( 0.15) | 29.03% ( -0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.07% ( 0.18) | 64.93% ( -0.18) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.39% ( 0.11) | 9.61% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 67.88% ( 0.26) | 32.12% ( -0.26) |
| Score Analysis |
| Heracles | Draw | Ajax |
| 2-1 @ 5% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 3.45% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 2.41% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 2.13% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 2.06% ( 0)Other @ 3.92% Total : 18.98% | 1-1 @ 8.08% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 5.85% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 2.79% ( -0.05)3-3 @ 1.89% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.38% Total : 18.99% | 1-2 @ 9.47% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 7.65% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 7.39% ( 0.02)0-1 @ 6.53% ( -0.08)0-3 @ 5.98% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 4.57% ( 0.03)1-4 @ 4.33% ( 0.03)0-4 @ 3.5% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 2.68% ( 0.03)1-5 @ 2.03% ( 0.02)0-5 @ 1.64% ( 0.01)2-5 @ 1.25% ( 0.02)3-4 @ 1.1% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.9% Total : 62.02% |
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