SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Twente win with a probability of 82.23%. A draw had a probability of 11.7% and a win for Heracles had a probability of 6.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Twente win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.15%) and 4-0 (8.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.49%), while for a Heracles win it was 1-2 (1.91%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Twente would win this match.
| Result | ||
| FC Twente | Draw | Heracles |
82.23% ( 0.41) | 11.69% ( -0.22) | 6.08% ( -0.19) |
| Both teams to score 47.42% ( -0.27) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 69.9% ( 0.29) | 30.09% ( -0.29) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 48.69% ( 0.35) | 51.3% ( -0.34) |
| FC Twente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 94.57% ( 0.13) | 5.42% ( -0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 78.76% ( 0.37) | 21.23% ( -0.37) |
| Heracles Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 50.14% ( -0.35) | 49.85% ( 0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 15.44% ( -0.25) | 84.55% ( 0.25) |
| Score Analysis |
| FC Twente | Draw | Heracles |
| 2-0 @ 11.48% 3-0 @ 11.15% ( 0.09)4-0 @ 8.13% ( 0.13)2-1 @ 7.99% ( -0.08)1-0 @ 7.88% ( -0.06)3-1 @ 7.77% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 5.66% ( 0.03)5-0 @ 4.74% ( 0.11)5-1 @ 3.3% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 2.7% ( -0.03)6-0 @ 2.3% ( 0.07)4-2 @ 1.97% ( -0.01)6-1 @ 1.6% ( 0.04)5-2 @ 1.15% ( 0)7-0 @ 0.96% ( 0.04)Other @ 3.46% Total : 82.23% | 1-1 @ 5.49% ( -0.1) 2-2 @ 2.78% ( -0.06)0-0 @ 2.7% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.71% Total : 11.69% | 1-2 @ 1.91% ( -0.06) 0-1 @ 1.88% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.28% Total : 6.08% |
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