SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEC win with a probability of 52.01%. A win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 25.43% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a NEC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.24%) and 2-0 (7.72%). The likeliest Fortuna Sittard win was 1-2 (6.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.3%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that NEC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| NEC | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
52.01% ( 0.26) | 22.55% ( -0.09) | 25.43% ( -0.17) |
| Both teams to score 60.39% ( 0.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.4% ( 0.29) | 39.59% ( -0.29) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.05% ( 0.3) | 61.94% ( -0.3) |
| NEC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.65% ( 0.19) | 15.35% ( -0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.89% ( 0.36) | 44.11% ( -0.36) |
| Fortuna Sittard Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.34% ( 0.02) | 28.66% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.53% ( 0.03) | 64.47% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| NEC | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
| 2-1 @ 9.65% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.24% ( -0.05)2-0 @ 7.72% 3-1 @ 6.03% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 4.83% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 3.77% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 2.83% ( 0.04)4-0 @ 2.26% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.77% ( 0.03)5-1 @ 1.06% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.85% Total : 52.01% | 1-1 @ 10.3% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 6.03% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 4.4% ( -0.06)3-3 @ 1.57% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.25% Total : 22.55% | 1-2 @ 6.44% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 5.5% ( -0.07)0-2 @ 3.43% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 2.68% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.51% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.43% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.44% Total : 25.43% |
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