SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEC win with a probability of 45.49%. A win for Ajax had a probability of 33.74% and a draw had a probability of 20.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a NEC win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.63%) and 3-2 (5.07%). The likeliest Ajax win was 1-2 (6.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.64%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| NEC | Draw | Ajax |
45.49% ( 3.84) | 20.77% ( -0.02) | 33.74% ( -3.83) |
| Both teams to score 73.28% ( -0.99) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 74.73% ( -0.89) | 25.27% ( 0.89) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 54.73% ( -1.17) | 45.27% ( 1.17) |
| NEC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.78% ( 0.87) | 12.21% ( -0.87) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 62.1% ( 1.8) | 37.9% ( -1.8) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.47% ( -1.98) | 16.52% ( 1.98) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.73% ( -3.7) | 46.27% ( 3.69) |
| Score Analysis |
| NEC | Draw | Ajax |
| 2-1 @ 8.03% ( 0.45) 3-1 @ 5.63% ( 0.49)3-2 @ 5.07% ( 0.11)2-0 @ 4.46% ( 0.53)1-0 @ 4.24% ( 0.37)3-0 @ 3.13% ( 0.46)4-1 @ 2.96% ( 0.35)4-2 @ 2.66% ( 0.14)4-0 @ 1.64% ( 0.29)4-3 @ 1.6% ( -0.02)5-1 @ 1.24% ( 0.18)5-2 @ 1.12% ( 0.1)Other @ 3.7% Total : 45.49% | 1-1 @ 7.64% ( 0.18) 2-2 @ 7.23% ( -0.09)3-3 @ 3.04% ( -0.15)0-0 @ 2.02% ( 0.12)Other @ 0.84% Total : 20.77% | 1-2 @ 6.88% ( -0.32) 2-3 @ 4.34% ( -0.36)1-3 @ 4.13% ( -0.5)0-1 @ 3.63% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 3.27% ( -0.27)0-3 @ 1.96% ( -0.31)2-4 @ 1.95% ( -0.31)1-4 @ 1.86% ( -0.37)3-4 @ 1.37% ( -0.17)Other @ 4.35% Total : 33.74% |
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