SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortuna Sittard win with a probability of 47.73%. A win for Vitesse had a probability of 28.72% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortuna Sittard win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.37%) and 2-0 (7.26%). The likeliest Vitesse win was 1-2 (7.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.85%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fortuna Sittard would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Fortuna Sittard | Draw | Vitesse |
47.73% ( -1.01) | 23.55% ( 0.25) | 28.72% ( 0.76) |
| Both teams to score 59.82% ( -0.3) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.36% ( -0.66) | 41.64% ( 0.65) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.96% ( -0.66) | 64.04% ( 0.66) |
| Fortuna Sittard Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.34% ( -0.64) | 17.66% ( 0.63) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 51.72% ( -1.11) | 48.28% ( 1.11) |
| Vitesse Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.65% ( 0.19) | 27.35% ( -0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 37.19% ( 0.25) | 62.8% ( -0.25) |
| Score Analysis |
| Fortuna Sittard | Draw | Vitesse |
| 2-1 @ 9.41% ( -0.06) 1-0 @ 8.37% ( 0.07)2-0 @ 7.26% ( -0.09)3-1 @ 5.44% ( -0.15)3-0 @ 4.2% ( -0.14)3-2 @ 3.53% ( -0.08)4-1 @ 2.36% ( -0.12)4-0 @ 1.82% ( -0.1)4-2 @ 1.53% ( -0.07)Other @ 3.81% Total : 47.73% | 1-1 @ 10.85% ( 0.15) 2-2 @ 6.1% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 4.83% ( 0.14)3-3 @ 1.52% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.23% Total : 23.54% | 1-2 @ 7.04% ( 0.14) 0-1 @ 6.26% ( 0.22)0-2 @ 4.06% ( 0.16)1-3 @ 3.04% ( 0.07)2-3 @ 2.64% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.75% ( 0.08)1-4 @ 0.99% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.94% Total : 28.72% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 17 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 59 | 7 | 52 | 51 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 50 | 16 | 34 | 39 |
| 3 | FC Twente | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 36 | 20 | 16 | 37 |
| 4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 36 | 16 | 20 | 33 |
| 5 | Ajax | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 38 | 32 | 6 | 28 |
| 6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 22 | 2 | 25 |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 28 | 26 | 2 | 23 |
| 8 | NECNijmegen | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 33 | 30 | 3 | 22 |
| 9 | Heerenveen | 17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 26 | 32 | -6 | 20 |
| 10 | PEC Zwolle | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 25 | 30 | -5 | 19 |
| 11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 30 | -13 | 19 |
| 12 | Almere CityAlmere City | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 19 | 34 | -15 | 19 |
| 13 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 18 |
| 14 | Heracles | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 22 | 40 | -18 | 18 |
| 15 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 17 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 17 |
| 16 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 17 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 16 | 30 | -14 | 14 |
| 17 | Vitesse | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 12 | 37 | -25 | 12 |
| 18 | FC VolendamVolendam | 17 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 18 | 41 | -23 | 11 |
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