With both of these bottom-half teams having collected points recently, this feels like an evenly-matched contest. However, we have to back the home side to come through this encounter given their recent two home showings, albeit perhaps by a smaller margin than in those fixtures.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortuna Sittard win with a probability of 49.88%. A win for RKC Waalwijk had a probability of 26.58% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortuna Sittard win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.03%) and 2-0 (7.89%). The likeliest RKC Waalwijk win was 1-2 (6.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fortuna Sittard would win this match.
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