SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 64%. A draw had a probability of 18.7% and a win for Heerenveen had a probability of 17.25%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.43%) and 1-3 (7.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.24%), while for a Heerenveen win it was 2-1 (4.7%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Heerenveen | Draw | Ajax |
17.25% ( 0.02) | 18.75% ( -0.05) | 64% ( 0.03) |
| Both teams to score 61.46% ( 0.25) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 67.47% ( 0.3) | 32.52% ( -0.3) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 45.82% ( 0.34) | 54.18% ( -0.35) |
| Heerenveen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.04% ( 0.21) | 31.95% ( -0.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.59% ( 0.24) | 68.41% ( -0.24) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.32% ( 0.09) | 9.68% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 67.72% ( 0.21) | 32.28% ( -0.22) |
| Score Analysis |
| Heerenveen | Draw | Ajax |
| 2-1 @ 4.7% ( -0) 1-0 @ 3.53% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 2.09% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 2.01% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 1.79% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.13% Total : 17.25% | 1-1 @ 8.24% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 5.49% ( 0.02)0-0 @ 3.09% ( -0.05)3-3 @ 1.63% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.3% Total : 18.75% | 1-2 @ 9.62% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 8.43% ( -0.07)1-3 @ 7.49% ( 0.01)0-1 @ 7.22% ( -0.09)0-3 @ 6.57% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 4.37% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 4.27% ( 0.03)0-4 @ 3.83% ( 0)2-4 @ 2.49% ( 0.03)1-5 @ 2.04% ( 0.02)0-5 @ 1.79% ( 0.01)2-5 @ 1.17% ( 0.02)3-4 @ 0.95% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.76% Total : 64% |
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