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Eredivisie | Gameweek 23
Feb 25, 2024 at 3.45pm UK
AFAS Stadion
A

AZ
2 - 0
Ajax

van Bommel (7', 67')
Bazoer (55'), Goes (79')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Sittard 1-2 AZ
Saturday, February 17 at 5.45pm in Eredivisie
Last Game: Bodo/Glimt 1-2 Ajax
Thursday, February 22 at 5.45pm in Europa Conference League

We said: AZ Alkmaar 1-3 Ajax

While AZ have the benefit of having a week of preparation for this game, Ajax are on a high after their Europa Conference League exploits. With that in mind, we are backing the visitors to put in another improved performance to earn a second crucial win in the context of their season in quick succession. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 49.97%. A win for Ajax had a probability of 29.49% and a draw had a probability of 20.5%.

The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.17%) and 2-0 (5.13%). The likeliest Ajax win was 1-2 (6.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.

Result
AZ AlkmaarDrawAjax
49.97% (-0.389 -0.39) 20.53% (0.115 0.12) 29.49% (0.272 0.27)
Both teams to score 71.77% (-0.248 -0.25)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
73.7% (-0.392 -0.39)26.3% (0.391 0.39)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
53.4% (-0.504 -0.5)46.6% (0.503 0.5)
AZ Alkmaar Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.71% (-0.244 -0.24)11.29% (0.244 0.24)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
64.08% (-0.535 -0.53)35.92% (0.534 0.53)
Ajax Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.9% (-0.057999999999993 -0.06)19.1% (0.056000000000001 0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.28% (-0.091000000000001 -0.09)50.72% (0.090000000000003 0.09)
Score Analysis
    AZ Alkmaar 49.97%
    Ajax 29.49%
    Draw 20.53%
AZ AlkmaarDrawAjax
2-1 @ 8.49% (0.026000000000002 0.03)
3-1 @ 6.17% (-0.042999999999999 -0.04)
2-0 @ 5.13% (0.024999999999999 0.02)
3-2 @ 5.11% (-0.045 -0.04)
1-0 @ 4.7% (0.069999999999999 0.07)
3-0 @ 3.73% (-0.018 -0.02)
4-1 @ 3.37% (-0.057 -0.06)
4-2 @ 2.79% (-0.052 -0.05)
4-0 @ 2.03% (-0.031 -0.03)
4-3 @ 1.54% (-0.032 -0.03)
5-1 @ 1.47% (-0.04 -0.04)
5-2 @ 1.22% (-0.035 -0.03)
Other @ 4.22%
Total : 49.97%
1-1 @ 7.79% (0.101 0.1)
2-2 @ 7.03% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
3-3 @ 2.82% (-0.029 -0.03)
0-0 @ 2.16% (0.052 0.05)
Other @ 0.74%
Total : 20.53%
1-2 @ 6.45% (0.072 0.07)
2-3 @ 3.88% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
0-1 @ 3.57% (0.081 0.08)
1-3 @ 3.56% (0.033 0.03)
0-2 @ 2.96% (0.062 0.06)
0-3 @ 1.63% (0.032 0.03)
2-4 @ 1.61% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
1-4 @ 1.47% (0.011 0.01)
3-4 @ 1.17% (-0.015 -0.01)
Other @ 3.21%
Total : 29.49%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Sittard 1-2 AZ
Saturday, February 17 at 5.45pm in Eredivisie
Last Game: Almere City 0-0 AZ
Saturday, February 10 at 7pm in Eredivisie
Last Game: Feyenoord 2-0 AZ
Wednesday, February 7 at 8pm in KNVB Beker
Last Game: AZ 0-1 Feyenoord
Sunday, February 4 at 1.30pm in Eredivisie
Last Game: Heerenveen 2-2 AZ
Sunday, January 28 at 11.15am in Eredivisie
Last Game: AZ 2-2 PEC Zwolle
Saturday, January 20 at 7pm in Eredivisie
Last Game: Bodo/Glimt 1-2 Ajax
Thursday, February 22 at 5.45pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Ajax 2-2 Nijmegen
Sunday, February 18 at 1.30pm in Eredivisie
Last Game: Ajax 2-2 Bodo/Glimt
Thursday, February 15 at 8pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Heerenveen 3-2 Ajax
Sunday, February 11 at 1.30pm in Eredivisie
Last Game: Ajax 1-1 PSV
Saturday, February 3 at 7pm in Eredivisie
Last Game: Heracles 2-4 Ajax
Saturday, January 27 at 8pm in Eredivisie


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