SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 59.31%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for FC Utrecht had a probability of 20.23%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.36%) and 1-0 (7.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.19%), while for a FC Utrecht win it was 1-2 (5.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ajax | Draw | FC Utrecht |
59.31% ( -1.19) | 20.46% ( 0.48) | 20.23% ( 0.72) |
| Both teams to score 60.81% ( -0.49) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.1% ( -1.19) | 35.9% ( 1.19) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.01% ( -1.32) | 57.99% ( 1.32) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.12% ( -0.69) | 11.88% ( 0.69) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 62.82% ( -1.48) | 37.18% ( 1.48) |
| FC Utrecht Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69% ( -0.02) | 31% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.7% ( -0.02) | 67.3% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ajax | Draw | FC Utrecht |
| 2-1 @ 9.79% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 8.36% ( 0.04)1-0 @ 7.84% ( 0.25)3-1 @ 6.95% ( -0.16)3-0 @ 5.93% ( -0.14)3-2 @ 4.07% ( -0.1)4-1 @ 3.7% ( -0.19)4-0 @ 3.16% ( -0.16)4-2 @ 2.17% ( -0.11)5-1 @ 1.58% ( -0.13)5-0 @ 1.35% ( -0.11)5-2 @ 0.92% ( -0.08)Other @ 3.49% Total : 59.31% | 1-1 @ 9.19% ( 0.29) 2-2 @ 5.73% ( 0.02)0-0 @ 3.68% ( 0.22)3-3 @ 1.59% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.28% Total : 20.46% | 1-2 @ 5.38% ( 0.17) 0-1 @ 4.31% ( 0.25)0-2 @ 2.53% ( 0.15)2-3 @ 2.24% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.1% ( 0.07)0-3 @ 0.99% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.69% Total : 20.23% |
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