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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 67.64%. A draw had a probability of 16.9% and a win for NEC had a probability of 15.44%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.88%) and 2-0 (7.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.97%), while for a NEC win it was 1-2 (4.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Ajax | Draw | NEC |
67.64% ( 1.5) | 16.92% | 15.44% ( -1.5) |
| Both teams to score 64.51% ( -3.83) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 73.05% ( -3.13) | 26.95% ( 3.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 52.58% ( -4.07) | 47.42% ( 4.07) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.6% ( -0.51) | 7.4% ( 0.52) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 73.32% ( -1.36) | 26.68% ( 1.36) |
| NEC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.67% ( -3.72) | 30.33% ( 3.73) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.49% ( -4.68) | 66.51% ( 4.69) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ajax | Draw | NEC |
| 2-1 @ 9.08% ( 0.39) 3-1 @ 7.88% ( 0.13)2-0 @ 7.61% ( 1.05)3-0 @ 6.6% ( 0.75)1-0 @ 5.85% ( 0.94)4-1 @ 5.13% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 4.7% ( -0.43)4-0 @ 4.3% ( 0.38)4-2 @ 3.06% ( -0.37)5-1 @ 2.67% ( -0.1)5-0 @ 2.24% ( 0.14)5-2 @ 1.59% ( -0.24)4-3 @ 1.22% ( -0.3)6-1 @ 1.16% ( -0.08)6-0 @ 0.97% ( 0.04)Other @ 3.62% Total : 67.64% | 1-1 @ 6.97% ( 0.48) 2-2 @ 5.42% ( -0.33)0-0 @ 2.25% ( 0.41)3-3 @ 1.87% ( -0.39)Other @ 0.41% Total : 16.92% | 1-2 @ 4.16% ( -0.14) 0-1 @ 2.68% ( 0.25)2-3 @ 2.15% ( -0.38)1-3 @ 1.66% ( -0.24)0-2 @ 1.6% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.19% Total : 15.44% |
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