SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 89.66%. A draw had a probability of 7.1% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 3.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 3-0 with a probability of 10.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 4-0 (10%) and 2-0 (9.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.25%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 1-2 (1.06%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
| Result | ||
| PSV Eindhoven | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
89.66% ( -0.15) | 7.14% ( 0.08) | 3.2% ( 0.07) |
| Both teams to score 46.67% ( 0.44) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 80.16% ( 0.06) | 19.83% ( -0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 62.14% ( 0.09) | 37.85% ( -0.09) |
| PSV Eindhoven Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 97.37% ( -0.01) | 2.62% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 87.81% ( -0.04) | 12.18% ( 0.04) |
| SBV Excelsior Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 47.93% ( 0.45) | 52.06% ( -0.45) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 13.95% ( 0.29) | 86.05% ( -0.29) |
| Score Analysis |
| PSV Eindhoven | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
| 3-0 @ 10.98% ( -0.09) 4-0 @ 10% ( -0.08)2-0 @ 9.06% ( -0.06)5-0 @ 7.28% ( -0.07)3-1 @ 7.17% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 6.53% ( 0.03)2-1 @ 5.91% ( 0.04)1-0 @ 4.98% ( -0.03)5-1 @ 4.75% ( 0.02)6-0 @ 4.42% ( -0.05)6-1 @ 2.88% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.34% ( 0.04)7-0 @ 2.3% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 2.13% ( 0.04)5-2 @ 1.55% ( 0.03)7-1 @ 1.5% ( 0)8-0 @ 1.04% ( -0.01)6-2 @ 0.94% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.91% Total : 89.65% | 1-1 @ 3.25% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 1.93% ( 0.04)0-0 @ 1.37% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.59% Total : 7.14% | 1-2 @ 1.06% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.14% Total : 3.2% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Feyenoord | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 81 | 30 | 51 | 82 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 34 | 23 | 6 | 5 | 89 | 40 | 49 | 75 |
| 3 | Ajax | 34 | 20 | 9 | 5 | 86 | 38 | 48 | 69 |
| 4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 34 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 35 | 33 | 67 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 34 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 66 | 27 | 39 | 64 |
| 6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 60 | 37 | 23 | 59 |
| 7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 55 | 50 | 5 | 54 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 44 | 50 | -6 | 46 |
| 9 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 50 | 64 | -14 | 41 |
| 10 | Vitesse | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 40 |
| 11 | Go Ahead Eagles | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 56 | -10 | 40 |
| 12 | NECNijmegen | 34 | 8 | 15 | 11 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 39 |
| 13 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 36 |
| 14 | FC VolendamVolendam | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 42 | 71 | -29 | 36 |
| 15 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 34 | 9 | 5 | 20 | 32 | 71 | -39 | 32 |
| 16 | EmmenEmmen | 34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 33 | 65 | -32 | 28 |
| R | Cambuur | 34 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 26 | 69 | -43 | 19 |
| R | Groningen | 34 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 31 | 75 | -44 | 18 |
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