SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sparta Rotterdam win with a probability of 37.82%. A win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 35.72% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sparta Rotterdam win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.28%) and 0-2 (6.51%). The likeliest SBV Excelsior win was 1-0 (9.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.58%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sparta Rotterdam would win this match.
| Result | ||
| SBV Excelsior | Draw | Sparta Rotterdam |
35.72% ( -0.04) | 26.46% ( 0.02) | 37.82% ( 0.03) |
| Both teams to score 52.64% ( -0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.82% ( -0.07) | 52.18% ( 0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.11% ( -0.06) | 73.89% ( 0.06) |
| SBV Excelsior Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.94% ( -0.05) | 28.05% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.29% ( -0.07) | 63.71% ( 0.08) |
| Sparta Rotterdam Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.17% ( -0.02) | 26.83% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.87% ( -0.02) | 62.13% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| SBV Excelsior | Draw | Sparta Rotterdam |
| 1-0 @ 9.57% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 8% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 6.08% ( -0)3-1 @ 3.39% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 2.58% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.23% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.08% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.8% Total : 35.72% | 1-1 @ 12.58% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.53% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 5.26% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 0.98% ( -0)Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.46% | 0-1 @ 9.9% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 8.28% ( 0)0-2 @ 6.51% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 3.63% ( -0)0-3 @ 2.86% ( 0)2-3 @ 2.31% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.19% ( -0)0-4 @ 0.94% ( 0)Other @ 2.19% Total : 37.82% |
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