Both teams are low on confidence and struggling for form currently, but the visitors have at least managed to show their quality in patches this season, and given that they are hard to beat and that the hosts are particularly leaky at the back, we see NEC having enough to find a decisive goal and come out on top on their travels.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SBV Excelsior win with a probability of 45.24%. A win for NEC had a probability of 30.23% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a SBV Excelsior win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.08%) and 2-0 (7.28%). The likeliest NEC win was 1-2 (7.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.5%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that NEC would win this match.
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