SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 61.71%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for RKC Waalwijk had a probability of 16.03%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.95%) and 1-2 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.54%), while for a RKC Waalwijk win it was 1-0 (5.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-3 win for AZ Alkmaar in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for AZ Alkmaar.
| Result | ||
| RKC Waalwijk | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
16.03% ( 0.36) | 22.27% ( -0.01) | 61.71% ( -0.35) |
| Both teams to score 46.66% ( 0.78) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.32% ( 0.63) | 50.68% ( -0.63) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.41% ( 0.56) | 72.59% ( -0.55) |
| RKC Waalwijk Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.5% ( 0.87) | 44.5% ( -0.86) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.47% ( 0.7) | 80.53% ( -0.69) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.06% ( 0.1) | 15.94% ( -0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.8% ( 0.18) | 45.2% ( -0.18) |
| Score Analysis |
| RKC Waalwijk | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 1-0 @ 5.74% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 4.27% ( 0.11)2-0 @ 2.33% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 1.15% ( 0.06)3-2 @ 1.06% ( 0.06)Other @ 1.48% Total : 16.03% | 1-1 @ 10.54% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 7.09% ( -0.18)2-2 @ 3.92% ( 0.11)Other @ 0.71% Total : 22.26% | 0-1 @ 13.02% ( -0.29) 0-2 @ 11.95% ( -0.23)1-2 @ 9.68% ( 0.05)0-3 @ 7.32% ( -0.11)1-3 @ 5.93% ( 0.05)0-4 @ 3.36% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 2.72% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 2.4% ( 0.08)0-5 @ 1.24% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.1% ( 0.04)1-5 @ 1% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.97% Total : 61.7% |
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