SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 60.16%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Go Ahead Eagles had a probability of 19.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.03%) and 1-0 (8.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.48%), while for a Go Ahead Eagles win it was 1-2 (5.2%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Go Ahead Eagles |
60.16% ( -1.6) | 20.64% ( 0.26) | 19.2% ( 1.33) |
| Both teams to score 58.33% ( 1.65) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.68% ( 0.96) | 38.31% ( -0.97) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.4% ( 1.02) | 60.59% ( -1.02) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.61% ( -0.16) | 12.39% ( 0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 61.73% ( -0.32) | 38.26% ( 0.31) |
| Go Ahead Eagles Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.58% ( 1.99) | 33.41% ( -2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.96% ( 2.12) | 70.04% ( -2.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Go Ahead Eagles |
| 2-1 @ 9.9% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 9.03% ( -0.53)1-0 @ 8.64% ( -0.46)3-1 @ 6.89% ( -0.06)3-0 @ 6.28% ( -0.41)3-2 @ 3.78% ( 0.17)4-1 @ 3.6% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 3.28% ( -0.23)4-2 @ 1.97% ( 0.08)5-1 @ 1.5% ( -0.03)5-0 @ 1.37% ( -0.11)Other @ 3.92% Total : 60.16% | 1-1 @ 9.48% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 5.42% ( 0.27)0-0 @ 4.14% ( -0.19)3-3 @ 1.38% ( 0.13)Other @ 0.22% Total : 20.64% | 1-2 @ 5.2% ( 0.29) 0-1 @ 4.54% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 2.49% ( 0.15)2-3 @ 1.98% ( 0.2)1-3 @ 1.9% ( 0.2)0-3 @ 0.91% ( 0.1)Other @ 2.2% Total : 19.2% |
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