SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 74.7%. A draw had a probability of 15.6% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 9.73%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.67%) and 1-0 (9.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.32%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 0-1 (2.92%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
74.7% ( 0.42) | 15.57% ( -0.25) | 9.73% ( -0.16) |
| Both teams to score 50.39% ( 0.29) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.16% ( 0.71) | 35.83% ( -0.71) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.08% ( 0.78) | 57.91% ( -0.78) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.87% ( 0.26) | 8.13% ( -0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 71.47% ( 0.65) | 28.52% ( -0.65) |
| SBV Excelsior Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.85% ( 0.16) | 45.14% ( -0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.95% ( 0.13) | 81.05% ( -0.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
| 2-0 @ 11.55% ( -0.12) 3-0 @ 9.67% ( 0.03)1-0 @ 9.21% ( -0.21)2-1 @ 9.19% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 7.69% ( 0.06)4-0 @ 6.07% ( 0.09)4-1 @ 4.83% ( 0.1)3-2 @ 3.06% ( 0.04)5-0 @ 3.05% ( 0.09)5-1 @ 2.42% ( 0.08)4-2 @ 1.92% ( 0.05)6-0 @ 1.27% ( 0.05)6-1 @ 1.01% ( 0.05)5-2 @ 0.96% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.79% Total : 74.69% | 1-1 @ 7.32% ( -0.13) 0-0 @ 3.67% ( -0.13)2-2 @ 3.66% ( -0)Other @ 0.92% Total : 15.57% | 0-1 @ 2.92% ( -0.09) 1-2 @ 2.91% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 1.16% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 0.97% ( 0)Other @ 1.77% Total : 9.73% |
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