SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 55.43%. A win for RKC Waalwijk had a probability of 23% and a draw had a probability of 21.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.98%) and 1-0 (7.98%). The likeliest RKC Waalwijk win was 1-2 (5.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.75%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Willem II would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Willem II | Draw | RKC Waalwijk |
55.43% ( 2.36) | 21.58% ( -0.26) | 23% ( -2.1) |
| Both teams to score 60.98% ( -1.65) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.46% ( -1.04) | 37.54% ( 1.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.23% ( -1.13) | 59.77% ( 1.13) |
| Willem II Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.47% ( 0.38) | 13.53% ( -0.38) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 59.41% ( 0.76) | 40.59% ( -0.76) |
| RKC Waalwijk Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.52% ( -2.23) | 29.48% ( 2.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.51% ( -2.81) | 65.48% ( 2.81) |
| Score Analysis |
| Willem II | Draw | RKC Waalwijk |
| 2-1 @ 9.75% ( 0.16) 2-0 @ 7.98% ( 0.61)1-0 @ 7.98% ( 0.5)3-1 @ 6.5% ( 0.2)3-0 @ 5.32% ( 0.47)3-2 @ 3.97% ( -0.13)4-1 @ 3.25% ( 0.14)4-0 @ 2.66% ( 0.27)4-2 @ 1.99% ( -0.04)5-1 @ 1.3% ( 0.07)5-0 @ 1.06% ( 0.12)Other @ 3.68% Total : 55.43% | 1-1 @ 9.75% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.95% ( -0.28)0-0 @ 3.99% ( 0.2)3-3 @ 1.62% ( -0.16)Other @ 0.27% Total : 21.58% | 1-2 @ 5.95% ( -0.37) 0-1 @ 4.87% ( -0.06)0-2 @ 2.98% ( -0.23)1-3 @ 2.42% ( -0.32)2-3 @ 2.42% ( -0.28)0-3 @ 1.21% ( -0.18)Other @ 3.14% Total : 23% |
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