Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 62.07%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Astana had a probability of 17.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.87%) and 0-1 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.56%), while for an Astana win it was 2-1 (4.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Chelsea would win this match.
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