SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 56.99%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 22.81% and a draw had a probability of 20.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.95%) and 3-1 (6.91%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 1-2 (5.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.49%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Chelsea would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Chelsea | Draw | Aston Villa |
56.99% ( 0.03) | 20.19% ( -0) | 22.81% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 65.92% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 68.99% ( -0.02) | 31% ( 0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 47.61% ( -0.02) | 52.39% ( 0.02) |
| Chelsea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.03% ( 0) | 10.97% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 64.79% ( 0.01) | 35.21% ( -0.01) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.04% ( -0.03) | 25.95% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.04% ( -0.04) | 60.96% ( 0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chelsea | Draw | Aston Villa |
| 2-1 @ 9.38% ( 0) 2-0 @ 6.95% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 6.91% ( 0)1-0 @ 6.29% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 5.12% ( 0)3-2 @ 4.66% ( -0)4-1 @ 3.82% ( 0)4-0 @ 2.83% ( 0)4-2 @ 2.58% ( -0)5-1 @ 1.69% ( 0)5-0 @ 1.25% ( 0)4-3 @ 1.16% ( -0)5-2 @ 1.14% ( -0)Other @ 3.22% Total : 56.99% | 1-1 @ 8.49% ( 0) 2-2 @ 6.33% ( -0)0-0 @ 2.85% ( 0)3-3 @ 2.1% ( -0)Other @ 0.44% Total : 20.19% | 1-2 @ 5.72% ( -0) 0-1 @ 3.84% 2-3 @ 2.84% ( -0)0-2 @ 2.59% ( -0)1-3 @ 2.57% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.16% ( -0)2-4 @ 0.96% ( -0)Other @ 3.12% Total : 22.82% |
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