The combination of declining form and a modest home record means that Atalanta are not the same well-oiled machine that impressed Europe with their attractive style and odds-defying achievements. Therefore, a more fluent and confident Leverkusen will head into the second leg on level terms, with their incisive forward line capable of frightening even the tightest of defences. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 39.88%. A win for Atalanta BC had a probability of 33.8% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.55%) and 0-2 (6.92%). The likeliest Atalanta BC win was 1-0 (9.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.51%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.

Result
Atalanta BC	Draw	Bayer Leverkusen
33.8%	26.31%	39.88%

Both teams to score 52.84%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.2%

51.8%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.44%

73.56%

Atalanta BC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.94%

29.06%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.03%

64.97%

Bayer Leverkusen Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.48%

25.52%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.63%

60.37%

Score Analysis

Atalanta BC 33.8%

Bayer Leverkusen 39.88%

Draw 26.31%

Atalanta BC	Draw	Bayer Leverkusen
1-0 @ 9.16% 2-1 @ 7.73% 2-0 @ 5.66% 3-1 @ 3.19% 3-0 @ 2.33% 3-2 @ 2.18% 4-1 @ 0.99% Other @ 2.56% Total : 33.8%	1-1 @ 12.51% 0-0 @ 7.41% 2-2 @ 5.28% 3-3 @ 0.99% Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.31%	0-1 @ 10.12% 1-2 @ 8.55% 0-2 @ 6.92% 1-3 @ 3.89% 0-3 @ 3.15% 2-3 @ 2.41% 1-4 @ 1.33% 0-4 @ 1.08% Other @ 2.44% Total : 39.88%