SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 60.58%. A draw had a probability of 19.7% and a win for NEC had a probability of 19.68%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.99%) and 3-1 (7.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.64%), while for a NEC win it was 1-2 (5.21%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | NEC |
60.58% ( -1.99) | 19.73% ( 0.46) | 19.68% ( 1.53) |
| Both teams to score 62.6% ( 1.24) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.82% ( 0.32) | 33.17% ( -0.32) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 45.07% ( 0.36) | 54.92% ( -0.37) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.29% ( -0.41) | 10.71% ( 0.4) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 65.37% ( -0.91) | 34.63% ( 0.91) |
| NEC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.1% ( 1.7) | 29.89% ( -1.71) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34% ( 2.01) | 65.99% ( -2.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | NEC |
| 2-1 @ 9.65% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 7.99% ( -0.42)3-1 @ 7.19% ( -0.15)1-0 @ 7.15% ( -0.25)3-0 @ 5.95% ( -0.42)3-2 @ 4.34% ( 0.11)4-1 @ 4.01% ( -0.16)4-0 @ 3.32% ( -0.3)4-2 @ 2.42% ( 0.02)5-1 @ 1.79% ( -0.1)5-0 @ 1.49% ( -0.16)5-2 @ 1.08% ( -0.01)4-3 @ 0.98% ( 0.05)Other @ 3.22% Total : 60.58% | 1-1 @ 8.64% ( 0.11) 2-2 @ 5.82% ( 0.25)0-0 @ 3.2% ( -0.05)3-3 @ 1.75% ( 0.12)Other @ 0.33% Total : 19.73% | 1-2 @ 5.21% ( 0.3) 0-1 @ 3.87% ( 0.12)2-3 @ 2.34% ( 0.2)0-2 @ 2.33% ( 0.17)1-3 @ 2.1% ( 0.21)0-3 @ 0.94% ( 0.11)Other @ 2.89% Total : 19.68% |
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