SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 63.45%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for PEC Zwolle had a probability of 15.86%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.96%) and 1-2 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.82%), while for a PEC Zwolle win it was 1-0 (4.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| PEC Zwolle | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
15.86% ( -0.23) | 20.68% ( 0.07) | 63.45% ( 0.15) |
| Both teams to score 51.26% ( -0.75) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.67% ( -0.73) | 44.33% ( 0.73) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.29% ( -0.72) | 66.7% ( 0.71) |
| PEC Zwolle Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.13% ( -0.74) | 40.87% ( 0.73) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.56% ( -0.67) | 77.44% ( 0.66) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.69% ( -0.19) | 13.31% ( 0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 59.85% ( -0.37) | 40.15% ( 0.36) |
| Score Analysis |
| PEC Zwolle | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 1-0 @ 4.87% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 4.39% ( -0.07)2-0 @ 2.18% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 1.32% ( -0.06)3-1 @ 1.31% ( -0.05)Other @ 1.8% Total : 15.86% | 1-1 @ 9.82% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 5.44% ( 0.17)2-2 @ 4.43% ( -0.1)Other @ 1% Total : 20.68% | 0-2 @ 11.06% ( 0.2) 0-1 @ 10.96% ( 0.27)1-2 @ 9.9% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 7.44% ( 0.09)1-3 @ 6.65% ( -0.06)0-4 @ 3.75% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 3.36% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 2.98% ( -0.09)0-5 @ 1.51% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.5% ( -0.05)1-5 @ 1.35% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.99% Total : 63.44% |
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