SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 51.85%. A win for FC Midtjylland had a probability of 24.19% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.69%) and 0-2 (8.91%). The likeliest FC Midtjylland win was 1-0 (6.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.35%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| FC Midtjylland | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
24.19% ( 0.22) | 23.96% ( -0.02) | 51.85% ( -0.2) |
| Both teams to score 54.26% ( 0.3) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.91% ( 0.28) | 47.08% ( -0.28) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.67% ( 0.26) | 69.32% ( -0.26) |
| FC Midtjylland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.29% ( 0.34) | 33.7% ( -0.34) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.64% ( 0.37) | 70.36% ( -0.38) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.85% ( 0.03) | 18.15% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.88% ( 0.05) | 49.12% ( -0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| FC Midtjylland | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 1-0 @ 6.65% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 6.17% ( 0.05)2-0 @ 3.62% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 2.24% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 1.91% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 1.31% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.28% Total : 24.19% | 1-1 @ 11.35% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.12% ( -0.07)2-2 @ 5.27% ( 0.05)3-3 @ 1.09% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.14% Total : 23.96% | 0-1 @ 10.43% ( -0.12) 1-2 @ 9.69% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 8.91% ( -0.09)1-3 @ 5.51% ( 0)0-3 @ 5.07% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 3% ( 0.03)1-4 @ 2.35% ( 0)0-4 @ 2.16% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1.28% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.45% Total : 51.84% |
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