SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 42.12%. A win for Sporting Lisbon had a probability of 31.59% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.78%) and 0-2 (7.44%). The likeliest Sporting Lisbon win was 1-0 (8.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Porto in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Porto.
| Result | ||
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Porto |
31.59% ( -0.32) | 26.29% ( -0.1) | 42.12% ( 0.44) |
| Both teams to score 52.24% ( 0.23) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.73% ( 0.34) | 52.27% ( -0.34) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.03% ( 0.29) | 73.97% ( -0.29) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.26% ( -0.05) | 30.75% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.99% ( -0.06) | 67.01% ( 0.06) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.43% ( 0.38) | 24.57% ( -0.37) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.95% ( 0.52) | 59.06% ( -0.52) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Porto |
| 1-0 @ 8.91% ( -0.13) 2-1 @ 7.37% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 5.25% ( -0.09)3-1 @ 2.9% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 2.07% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 2.04% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.06% Total : 31.59% | 1-1 @ 12.5% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 7.55% ( -0.1)2-2 @ 5.18% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 0.95% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.29% | 0-1 @ 10.6% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 8.78% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 7.44% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 4.11% ( 0.07)0-3 @ 3.48% ( 0.07)2-3 @ 2.42% ( 0.04)1-4 @ 1.44% ( 0.04)0-4 @ 1.22% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.62% Total : 42.11% |
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