Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maribor win with a probability of 45.42%. A win for HJK Helsinki had a probability of 27.3% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Maribor win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.8%) and 2-1 (8.77%). The likeliest HJK Helsinki win was 0-1 (9.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.8%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.
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