Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HJK Helsinki win with a probability of 60.3%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for IFK Mariehamn had a probability of 16.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a HJK Helsinki win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.9%) and 1-2 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.85%), while for a IFK Mariehamn win it was 1-0 (6.13%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.
0.02) 
-0.03) 
