SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Armenia win with a probability of 43.93%. A win for Latvia had a probability of 34.36% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Armenia win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.42%) and 1-0 (5.15%). The likeliest Latvia win was 1-2 (7.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Armenia in this match.
| Result | ||
| Armenia | Draw | Latvia |
43.93% ( 25.35) | 21.71% ( -0.62) | 34.36% ( -24.73) |
| Both teams to score 69.78% ( 18.35) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 70.16% ( 17.06) | 29.83% ( -17.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 49.01% ( 18.15) | 50.99% ( -18.16) |
| Armenia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.5% ( 24.62) | 14.5% ( -24.63) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.5% ( 33.34) | 42.49% ( -33.35) |
| Latvia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.61% ( -2.87) | 18.38% ( 2.87) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.48% ( -5.1) | 49.52% ( 5.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Armenia | Draw | Latvia |
| 2-1 @ 8.42% ( 3.44) 3-1 @ 5.42% ( 3.86)1-0 @ 5.15% ( -0.55)2-0 @ 4.97% ( 2.3)3-2 @ 4.59% ( 3.14)3-0 @ 3.2% ( 2.36)4-1 @ 2.62% ( 2.25)4-2 @ 2.22% ( 1.88)4-0 @ 1.54% ( 1.35)4-3 @ 1.25% ( 1.04)5-1 @ 1.01% ( 0.94)Other @ 3.55% Total : 43.93% | 1-1 @ 8.72% ( -1.89) 2-2 @ 7.13% ( 2.49)0-0 @ 2.66% ( -3.41)3-3 @ 2.59% ( 1.69)Other @ 0.61% Total : 21.71% | 1-2 @ 7.38% ( -2.51) 0-1 @ 4.51% ( -6.8)1-3 @ 4.17% ( -1.98)2-3 @ 4.03% ( 1.14)0-2 @ 3.82% ( -6.71)0-3 @ 2.16% ( -4.39)1-4 @ 1.77% ( -1.1)2-4 @ 1.71% ( 0.36)3-4 @ 1.1% ( 0.68)0-4 @ 0.91% ( -2.14)Other @ 2.81% Total : 34.36% |
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