SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Croatia win with a probability of 51.69%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Latvia had a probability of 21.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Croatia win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.69%) and 2-1 (8.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.3%), while for a Latvia win it was 0-1 (8.44%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Croatia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Croatia | Draw | Latvia |
51.69% ( -0.11) | 26.68% ( 0.03) | 21.63% ( 0.08) |
| Both teams to score 43.54% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.28% ( -0.04) | 59.72% ( 0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.98% ( -0.03) | 80.02% ( 0.03) |
| Croatia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.71% ( -0.07) | 23.29% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.78% ( -0.1) | 57.22% ( 0.1) |
| Latvia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.76% ( 0.06) | 43.24% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.51% ( 0.05) | 79.49% ( -0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Croatia | Draw | Latvia |
| 1-0 @ 14.67% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 10.69% ( -0.02)2-1 @ 8.96% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 5.19% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 4.35% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.89% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.83% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.59% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.51% Total : 51.69% | 1-1 @ 12.3% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 10.07% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 3.76% ( 0)Other @ 0.55% Total : 26.68% | 0-1 @ 8.44% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 5.16% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 3.54% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 1.44% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.05% ( 0)0-3 @ 0.99% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.01% Total : 21.63% |
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