Given that Latvia have scored three goals across their last two qualifiers, we can see the visitors finding the back of the net on Friday, but Croatia are expected to outscore the Group D minnows without any problems.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Croatia win with a probability of 51.69%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Latvia had a probability of 21.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Croatia win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.69%) and 2-1 (8.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.3%), while for a Latvia win it was 0-1 (8.44%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Croatia would win this match.
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