Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Croatia win with a probability of 38.8%. A win for Morocco had a probability of 33.21% and a draw had a probability of 28%.

The most likely scoreline for a Croatia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.08%) and 2-0 (7.25%). The likeliest Morocco win was 0-1 (10.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.14%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Croatia would win this match.