SM
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Morocco | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Croatia | 3 | 3 | 5 |
| 3 | Belgium | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Canada | 3 | -5 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Croatia win with a probability of 51.52%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Wales had a probability of 23.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Croatia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.88%) and 2-1 (9.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.04%), while for a Wales win it was 0-1 (7.73%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Croatia | Draw | Wales |
51.52% ( -0.11) | 25.45% ( 0) | 23.03% ( 0.1) |
| Both teams to score 48.43% ( 0.11) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.85% ( 0.09) | 54.14% ( -0.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.44% ( 0.07) | 75.56% ( -0.07) |
| Croatia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.96% ( -0.01) | 21.04% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 46.17% ( -0.01) | 53.83% ( 0.01) |
| Wales Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.34% ( 0.15) | 38.66% ( -0.15) |
