Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Netherlands win with a probability of 50.42%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Croatia had a probability of 23.63%.

The most likely scoreline for a Netherlands win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.79%) and 2-1 (9.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.24%), while for a Croatia win it was 0-1 (8.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood.