San Marino are rarely thrashed at this level, so we expect them to make life difficult for the visitors during certain periods.
However, there is little doubt that Estonia are a step up in class from their forthcoming opponents, so their 100% record should remain in tact.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estonia win with a probability of 50.31%. A win for San Marino had a probability of 26.53% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estonia win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.6%) and 0-2 (7.71%). The likeliest San Marino win was 2-1 (6.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.69%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Estonia would win this match.
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