SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | England | 4 | 14 | 12 |
| 2 | Ukraine | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Italy | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | North Macedonia | 3 | -7 | 3 |
| 5 | Malta | 4 | -8 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 37.64%. A win for North Macedonia had a probability of 36.09% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.29%) and 0-2 (6.41%). The likeliest North Macedonia win was 1-0 (9.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| North Macedonia | Draw | Italy |
36.09% ( 0.16) | 26.27% ( -0.22) | 37.64% ( 0.06) |
| Both teams to score 53.3% ( 0.72) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.65% ( 0.91) | 51.35% ( -0.91) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.83% ( 0.79) | 73.17% ( -0.79) |
| North Macedonia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.56% ( 0.53) | 27.43% ( -0.53) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.08% ( 0.68) | 62.92% ( -0.68) |
| Italy Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.46% ( 0.46) | 26.54% ( -0.46) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.25% ( 0.61) | 61.75% ( -0.61) |
| Score Analysis |
| North Macedonia | Draw | Italy |
| 1-0 @ 9.42% ( -0.2) 2-1 @ 8.08% ( 0.05)2-0 @ 6.09% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 3.48% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 2.63% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.31% ( 0.08)4-1 @ 1.13% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.96% Total : 36.09% | 1-1 @ 12.49% ( -0.1) 0-0 @ 7.28% ( -0.27)2-2 @ 5.36% ( 0.1)3-3 @ 1.02% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.12% Total : 26.27% | 0-1 @ 9.66% ( -0.23) 1-2 @ 8.29% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 6.41% ( -0.07)1-3 @ 3.66% ( 0.07)0-3 @ 2.83% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.37% ( 0.08)1-4 @ 1.22% ( 0.04)0-4 @ 0.94% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.27% Total : 37.64% |
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