SM
| Current League D2 Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Estonia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Malta | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | San Marino | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 78.99%. A draw had a probability of 14.3% and a win for Malta had a probability of 6.76%.
The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 0-2 with a probability of 14.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (11.84%) and 0-1 (11.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.74%), while for a Malta win it was 1-0 (2.71%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 14.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 0-2 win for Italy in this match.
| Result | ||
| Malta | Draw | Italy |
6.76% ( 0.27) | 14.25% ( 0.53) | 78.99% ( -0.8) |
| Both teams to score 40.78% ( -0.41) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.42% ( -1.45) | 40.58% ( 1.45) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.04% ( -1.5) | 62.96% ( 1.5) |
| Malta Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 44.46% ( -0.21) | 55.53% ( 0.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 11.8% ( -0.12) | 88.2% ( 0.12) |
| Italy Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.71% ( -0.51) | 8.29% ( 0.51) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 71.07% ( -1.28) | 28.93% ( 1.29) |
| Score Analysis |
| Malta | Draw | Italy |
| 1-0 @ 2.71% ( 0.16) 2-1 @ 1.98% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.07% Total : 6.76% | 1-1 @ 6.74% ( 0.24) 0-0 @ 4.6% ( 0.3)2-2 @ 2.47% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.44% Total : 14.25% | 0-2 @ 14.27% ( 0.24) 0-3 @ 11.84% ( -0.1)0-1 @ 11.46% ( 0.48)1-2 @ 8.4% ( 0.09)0-4 @ 7.38% ( -0.25)1-3 @ 6.97% ( -0.1)1-4 @ 4.34% ( -0.18)0-5 @ 3.67% ( -0.22)1-5 @ 2.16% ( -0.15)2-3 @ 2.05% ( -0.04)0-6 @ 1.53% ( -0.13)2-4 @ 1.28% ( -0.06)Other @ 3.64% Total : 78.98% |
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