SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | England | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | Italy | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | North Macedonia | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Ukraine | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 5 | Malta | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a England win with a probability of 87.34%. A draw had a probability of 9.3% and a win for Malta had a probability of 3.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a England win was 0-2 with a probability of 14.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (14.2%) and 0-4 (10.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.38%), while for a Malta win it was 1-0 (1.47%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that England would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Malta | Draw | England |
3.32% ( -0.06) | 9.34% ( -0.02) | 87.34% ( 0.08) |
| Both teams to score 34.72% ( -0.5) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.63% ( -0.29) | 33.37% ( 0.29) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.86% ( -0.33) | 55.14% ( 0.33) |
| Malta Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 36.59% ( -0.52) | 63.41% ( 0.52) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 7.7% ( -0.24) | 92.3% ( 0.24) |
| England Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 94.9% ( -0.03) | 5.1% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 79.73% ( -0.11) | 20.27% ( 0.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| Malta | Draw | England |
| 1-0 @ 1.47% ( -0) 2-1 @ 1% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.85% Total : 3.32% | 1-1 @ 4.38% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 3.23% ( 0.05)2-2 @ 1.49% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.24% Total : 9.35% | 0-2 @ 14.31% ( 0.14) 0-3 @ 14.2% ( 0.11)0-4 @ 10.57% ( 0.07)0-1 @ 9.62% ( 0.12)1-2 @ 6.52% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 6.47% ( -0.06)0-5 @ 6.29% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 4.82% ( -0.06)0-6 @ 3.12% ( 0)1-5 @ 2.87% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.47% ( -0.04)1-6 @ 1.42% ( -0.02)0-7 @ 1.33% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.1% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.21% Total : 87.32% |
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