Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a England win with a probability of 38.6%. A win for Italy had a probability of 33.04% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a England win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.96%) and 0-2 (7.3%). The likeliest Italy win was 1-0 (11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.23%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that England would win this match.
2.63) 
-2.68) 
