SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wales win with a probability of 39.34%. A win for Latvia had a probability of 34.51% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wales win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.51%) and 0-2 (6.72%). The likeliest Latvia win was 1-0 (9.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.42%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Wales would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Latvia | Draw | Wales |
34.51% ( -0.03) | 26.14% ( -0.04) | 39.34% ( 0.06) |
| Both teams to score 53.54% ( 0.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.04% ( 0.17) | 50.96% ( -0.17) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.17% ( 0.15) | 72.83% ( -0.15) |
| Latvia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.79% ( 0.06) | 28.2% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.1% ( 0.08) | 63.9% ( -0.09) |
| Wales Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.58% ( 0.11) | 25.42% ( -0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.76% ( 0.15) | 60.24% ( -0.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| Latvia | Draw | Wales |
| 1-0 @ 9.07% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 7.87% ( 0)2-0 @ 5.74% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 3.32% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 2.42% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.27% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.05% ( 0)Other @ 2.76% Total : 34.51% | 1-1 @ 12.42% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 7.17% ( -0.05)2-2 @ 5.39% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.04% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.12% Total : 26.13% | 0-1 @ 9.82% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 8.51% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 6.72% ( -0)1-3 @ 3.89% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 3.07% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.46% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 1.33% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 1.05% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.49% Total : 39.34% |
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