SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Turkey win with a probability of 43.93%. A win for Wales had a probability of 34.36% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Turkey win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.42%) and 1-0 (5.15%). The likeliest Wales win was 1-2 (7.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Turkey would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Turkey | Draw | Wales |
43.93% ( -13.66) | 21.71% ( -0.87) | 34.36% ( 14.53) |
| Both teams to score 69.78% ( 16.98) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 70.16% ( 16.31) | 29.83% ( -16.32) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 49.01% ( 17.45) | 50.99% ( -17.46) |
| Turkey Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.5% ( 1.26) | 14.5% ( -1.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.5% ( 2.38) | 42.49% ( -2.38) |
| Wales Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.61% ( 18.93) | 18.38% ( -18.94) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.48% ( 24.58) | 49.52% ( -24.59) |
| Score Analysis |
| Turkey | Draw | Wales |
| 2-1 @ 8.42% ( -1.48) 3-1 @ 5.42% ( -0.68)1-0 @ 5.15% ( -5.71)2-0 @ 4.97% ( -5.06)3-2 @ 4.59% ( 1.59)3-0 @ 3.2% ( -2.98)4-1 @ 2.62% ( -0.2)4-2 @ 2.22% ( 0.83)4-0 @ 1.54% ( -1.31)4-3 @ 1.25% ( 0.8)5-1 @ 1.01% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.55% Total : 43.93% | 1-1 @ 8.72% ( -1.99) 2-2 @ 7.13% ( 2.25)0-0 @ 2.66% ( -3.22)3-3 @ 2.59% ( 1.6)Other @ 0.61% Total : 21.71% | 1-2 @ 7.38% ( 2.1) 0-1 @ 4.51% ( -1.28)1-3 @ 4.17% ( 2.43)2-3 @ 4.03% ( 2.42)0-2 @ 3.82% ( 0.97)0-3 @ 2.16% ( 1.22)1-4 @ 1.77% ( 1.34)2-4 @ 1.71% ( 1.31)3-4 @ 1.1% ( 0.85)0-4 @ 0.91% ( 0.68)Other @ 2.81% Total : 34.36% |
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