SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | England | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | Italy | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | North Macedonia | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Ukraine | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 5 | Malta | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | England | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | Italy | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | North Macedonia | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Ukraine | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 5 | Malta | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a North Macedonia win with a probability of 41.72%. A win for Ukraine had a probability of 29.88% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a North Macedonia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.23%) and 2-0 (8.14%). The likeliest Ukraine win was 0-1 (10.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Ukraine would win this match.
| Result | ||
| North Macedonia | Draw | Ukraine |
41.72% ( -2.03) | 28.4% ( 0.48) | 29.88% ( 1.55) |
| Both teams to score 45.38% ( -0.55) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.35% ( -1.06) | 60.65% ( 1.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.27% ( -0.81) | 80.73% ( 0.81) |
| North Macedonia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.34% ( -1.6) | 28.66% ( 1.6) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.52% ( -2.04) | 64.48% ( 2.04) |
| Ukraine Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.61% ( 0.64) | 36.39% ( -0.64) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.82% ( 0.64) | 73.17% ( -0.64) |
| Score Analysis |
| North Macedonia | Draw | Ukraine |
| 1-0 @ 13.03% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 8.23% ( -0.27)2-0 @ 8.14% ( -0.42)3-1 @ 3.43% ( -0.28)3-0 @ 3.39% ( -0.34)3-2 @ 1.73% ( -0.11)4-1 @ 1.07% ( -0.14)4-0 @ 1.06% ( -0.16)Other @ 1.63% Total : 41.72% | 1-1 @ 13.17% ( 0.16) 0-0 @ 10.42% ( 0.4)2-2 @ 4.16% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.63% Total : 28.38% | 0-1 @ 10.54% ( 0.58) 1-2 @ 6.66% ( 0.2)0-2 @ 5.33% ( 0.38)1-3 @ 2.24% ( 0.1)0-3 @ 1.8% ( 0.16)2-3 @ 1.4% ( 0)Other @ 1.9% Total : 29.87% |
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